{"product_id":"radical-uncertainty-decision-making-beyond-the-numbers-9780393541984","title":"Radical Uncertainty: Decision-Making Beyond the Numbers","description":"\u003cp\u003eSome uncertainties are resolvable. The insurance industry's actuarial tables and the gambler's roulette wheel both yield to the tools of probability theory. Most situations in life, however, involve a deeper kind of uncertainty, a radical uncertainty for which historical data provide no useful guidance to future outcomes. Radical uncertainty concerns events whose determinants are insufficiently understood for probabilities to be known or forecasting possible. Before President Barack Obama made the fateful decision to send in the Navy Seals, his advisers offered him wildly divergent estimates of the odds that Osama bin Laden would be in the Abbottabad compound. In 2000, no one--not least Steve Jobs--knew what a smartphone was; how could anyone have predicted how many would be sold in 2020? And financial advisers who confidently provide the information required in the standard retirement planning package--what will interest rates, the cost of living, and your state of health be in 2050?--demonstrate only that their advice is worthless.\u003c\/p\u003e\u003cp\u003eThe limits of certainty demonstrate the power of human judgment over artificial intelligence. In most critical decisions there can be no forecasts or probability distributions on which we might sensibly rely. Instead of inventing numbers to fill the gaps in our knowledge, we should adopt business, political, and personal strategies that will be robust to alternative futures and resilient to unpredictable events. Within the security of such a robust and resilient reference narrative, uncertainty can be embraced, because it is the source of creativity, excitement, and profit.\u003c\/p\u003e\u003cbr\u003e\u003cbr\u003e\u003cb\u003eAuthor:\u003c\/b\u003e \u003ca href=\"https:\/\/sureshotbooks-com.myshopify.com\/search?type=product%2Carticle%2Cpage\u0026amp;q=AUTH-12217073\"\u003eJohn Kay\u003c\/a\u003e, \u003ca href=\"https:\/\/sureshotbooks-com.myshopify.com\/search?type=product%2Carticle%2Cpage\u0026amp;q=AUTH-12667579\"\u003eMervyn King\u003c\/a\u003e\u003cbr\u003e\u003cb\u003ePublisher:\u003c\/b\u003e W. W. Norton \u0026amp; Company\u003cbr\u003e\u003cb\u003ePublished:\u003c\/b\u003e 09\/07\/2021\u003cbr\u003e\u003cb\u003ePages:\u003c\/b\u003e 572\u003cbr\u003e\u003cb\u003eBinding Type:\u003c\/b\u003e Paperback\u003cbr\u003e\u003cb\u003eWeight:\u003c\/b\u003e 1.13lbs\u003cbr\u003e\u003cb\u003eSize:\u003c\/b\u003e 8.24h x 5.57w x 1.37d\u003cbr\u003e\u003cb\u003eISBN13:\u003c\/b\u003e 9780393541984\u003cbr\u003e\u003cb\u003eISBN10:\u003c\/b\u003e 0393541983\u003cbr\u003e\u003cb\u003eBISAC Categories:\u003c\/b\u003e\u003cbr\u003e- \u003ca href=\"https:\/\/sureshotbooks-com.myshopify.com\/search?type=product%2Carticle%2Cpage\u0026amp;q=CAT-BUS\"\u003eBusiness \u0026amp; Economics\u003c\/a\u003e | \u003ca href=\"https:\/\/sureshotbooks-com.myshopify.com\/search?type=product%2Carticle%2Cpage\u0026amp;q=BISAC-BUS019000\"\u003eDecision Making \u0026amp; Problem Solving\u003c\/a\u003e\u003cbr\u003e- \u003ca href=\"https:\/\/sureshotbooks-com.myshopify.com\/search?type=product%2Carticle%2Cpage\u0026amp;q=CAT-BUS\"\u003eBusiness \u0026amp; Economics\u003c\/a\u003e | \u003ca href=\"https:\/\/sureshotbooks-com.myshopify.com\/search?type=product%2Carticle%2Cpage\u0026amp;q=BISAC-BUS016000\"\u003eConsumer Behavior | General\u003c\/a\u003e\u003cbr\u003e- \u003ca href=\"https:\/\/sureshotbooks-com.myshopify.com\/search?type=product%2Carticle%2Cpage\u0026amp;q=CAT-BUS\"\u003eBusiness \u0026amp; Economics\u003c\/a\u003e | \u003ca href=\"https:\/\/sureshotbooks-com.myshopify.com\/search?type=product%2Carticle%2Cpage\u0026amp;q=BISAC-BUS086000\"\u003eForecasting\u003c\/a\u003e\u003cbr\u003e","brand":"W. W. Norton \u0026 Company","offers":[{"title":"Default Title","offer_id":42697224552685,"sku":"9780393541984","price":17.95,"currency_code":"USD","in_stock":false}],"thumbnail_url":"\/\/cdn.shopify.com\/s\/files\/1\/0550\/8097\/6621\/products\/img_25d5b728-62c4-4b17-b756-8779cc4d2410.jpg?v=1649886194","url":"https:\/\/sureshotbooks.com\/products\/radical-uncertainty-decision-making-beyond-the-numbers-9780393541984","provider":"SureShot Books Publishing LLC","version":"1.0","type":"link"}