Description
This book explores the philosophy of economic forecasting under uncertainty. In economics the extreme events are difficult and often impossible to predict, especially when leaning upon the past only. Events can be approximately evaluated, as they may be sudden and erratic. The presentation of programs for years ahead is of little value because the uncertainty intervals expand when economic volatility increases, forming uncertainty bands. This book presents the effect of an expanding uncertainty band.
This book reasons that the economic system has sensitivity thresholds - critical states of economic processes at which they significantly alter their characteristics. In those critical states, economic phase transitions may occur. A slowdown in economic growth, especially a tangible recession, can result in negative qualitative changes in the economy, which can have a long-term impact. As in medicine, in economics, the diagnosis must not be rigid and permanent. Vital indicators could and will change throughout therapy. A rigid forecast resulting in an attempt to ensure the rigid stability of indicators is dangerous and fraught with irreparable economic losses.
To solve the issue of inflexible programs, this book presents the minimal uncertainty interval. This method is to open a logical path from the predicament of explaining its quantitatively precise indefinability of the indicators. The aim is to contribute to the flexible and realistic concept about possible dynamics of economic processes with interval forecasts and probabilistic evaluations of those events' outcomes. It is indicated that exiting the allowable intervals of regulatory indicators contributes to the emergence of economic diseases. This book tries to explore and systematize economic diseases, presents the factors that affect forecast efficiency, and makes the forecast satisfactory. Based on the systematization of the conducted research, this book formulates the ten principles of forecasting, which are necessary for forecasting the economic processes and decision-making under uncertainty.
Author: Ashot Tavadyan
Publisher: Anthem Press
Published: 06/14/2022
Pages: 102
Binding Type: Paperback
Weight: 0.36lbs
Size: 9.00h x 6.00w x 0.25d
ISBN13: 9781839983986
ISBN10: 1839983981
BISAC Categories:
- Business & Economics | Forecasting
- Political Science | Public Policy | Economic Policy
- Mathematics | Probability & Statistics | General
About the Author
Dr. Ashot Tavadyan is a member of the Russian Academy of Natural Sciences, member of the International Information Academy of Canada, first chairman of the Control Chamber of Armenia, head of Center for Economic Research, editor-in-chief of Armenian Economic Journal, NAS RA, chairman of Mathematical Methods in Economics, Armenian State University of Economics. His main subject matter is assessing and regulating economic indicators in the face of change. The author has a long-running experience both in quantitative economics and political decision-making. This experience helped him to distil the ideas presented in the book for a wide readership